The smell of wet asphalt and the sight of orange and red leaves scattered along sidewalks have been in full effect for some time now. But, as the year and seasons come and go, hard winds, big rain, and slight snow in some landscapes become the norm for any team without a roof and past the Rockies. Time has once again turned the calendar page to December; a warm month of winter festivity and, in the football world, frigid fields and frantic finishes for numerous teams across the league.

Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, who are facing the unexplored prospect of wildcard or nothing; being excellent is now the only way to resuscitate their post-season goals and aspirations from the offseason. Teams like the Lions, who just lost one of their best players, Brian Branch, to an Achilles’ injury in a win against the white-hot Cowboys. Despite the much-needed win, they still must remain perfect to even sniff the Niners’ current seventh spot in the NFC playoff bracket. Now that Thanksgiving weekend has come and gone, results become more imperative and truths become clearer.

Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells is famous for responding to any question regarding his outlook on the season with, “Ask me after Thanksgiving”. A sentiment that most serious NFL organizations take to heart as the weeks and the passing year wind down. As we begin our trek into the home stretch of this tumultuous roller coaster season, we’d like to take you through who we view as the top-10 teams in the NFL and why we see it the way we do.

#1 – New England Patriots (11-2)

(Week 12: #3)

Make it 10 consecutive wins for first-year Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. After another dominant home win against the Giants, the once four-win New England team finds themselves in a spot not seen since #12 was in Foxborough: first seed in the AFC, and on pace to finish with at least 11 wins. This level of immediate improvement is unparalleled in recent memory. Although some might pull back at the sight of their listed opponents, all New England can do is beat whoever’s across from them, and do so handily. And that’s what they’ve been doing.

Although New England does have the easiest schedule in the NFL, they’re third in the league in point differential (+110). While the Vrabel-coached Pats defense only gives up 18.5 points a game, week 13 AFC Offensive Player of the Week Drake Maye leads the NFL in overall passer rating (111.9) and on throws that travel 20 yards or deeper, at 136.5, per Next Gen Stats.

With a cake-walk schedule to end an inaugural campaign with a new staff, and uber-accurate Drake Maye, who snatched the betting-favorite for MVP from Matthew Stafford, per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are looking to at least triple their previous year’s win total with a first-round bye going into January.

#2 – Los Angeles Rams (9-3)

(Week 12: #2)

Two interceptions on back-to-back drives, one of which was housed for six, in a road loss to a team that’s three games behind you in the NFC doesn’t look good on paper, we know that. But, a Southern California team – who plays under a roof — traveling back east to play a hungry North Carolina team in the hunt under the cold Appalachian rain, also doesn’t look good on paper.

After throwing the first touchdown to extend his unimaginable streak of 28 touchdowns and no interceptions, having not thrown a pick since week three, Matthew Stafford had his worst game in his MVP campaign. He accounted for three total turnovers, one immediately being scored, and the late-game fumble squashed any hope for the Rams to leave the Bank with a win. The fact that Matthew Stafford had the ball in his hands with a chance to take the lead with two minutes left to go in the contest after the earlier course of the game attests to this team’s resilience, which is why they can’t be dropped lower regardless of the loss.

Despite star receiver Puka Nacua leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards, their new offseason addition, Davante Adams, leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (14), thanks to their unstoppable goal-line passing package centered around the 11-year veteran. Second-year pass rusher Byron Young is tied eighth in the league with 10 sacks; on a defense that’s allowed the least amount of rushing touchdowns (4) and is third in total turnovers (20). After an across-the-board down day for both sides of the ball, it’s almost a guarantee that the Rams are going into Arizona angry and are looking to take it out on the little guy in the NFC West.

#3 – Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

(Week 12: #4)

When your #1 receiver has put up the most receiving yards in franchise history in a single season with four games left, you still have a consistent top-5 rush defense, and your kicker leads the entire NFL in scoring, you’re left with a 9-3 record. This has brought Seattle to competing for the lead in both the division and conference, and shutting out a former coach of the year with the 26-0 victory over Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings.

To achieve that level of elite play in — every coach’s favorite saying – “all three phases” of the game, your staff has to be on another level; which it fully is. Although the win against Minnesota didn’t have the same box score results for their stars like other Seahawks games from the season, like JSN only finishing with two catches and 23 yards, they’ll take it in their close race for top dog in the NFC West.

Mike Macdonald has called an elite defense all season while getting the best out of veteran defensive lineman Demarcus Lawrence; who sits fifth in the NFL in pressures (33), and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has been torching secondaries. Their running game hasn’t been nearly as dominant and potent as the Darnold-Njigba combination, although showing improvement against Minnesota. As long as Seattle can remain one of the league’s most balanced teams, they’ll make the late-season NFC West first-place race interesting.

#4 – Denver Broncos (10-2)

(Week 12: #1)

Call Denver what you want; fraudulent, illegitimate, a mirage, etc, etc — you must apply the same label and logic for the current AFC first seed, the Patriots. Denver has faced harder opponents than New England while clawing their way out of deficits and winning ugly the entire season. Although the Broncos’ offense has sputtered early in games throughout the season, quarterback Bo Nix and Co. have been able to turn it on when it mattered. When trailing, Nix’s passer rating shoots up to 101.3 while throwing for 12 touchdowns and only one pick. They’ve beaten multiple seriously perceived contenders, while still sticking around the top of all NFL defenses statistically.

Outside of their gimme game this weekend in Las Vegas, Denver faces a gauntlet of playoff/playoff-hopeful teams, three of which are in the AFC. The Broncos have already beaten Kansas City, who’s looking to scratch their way to the seventh seed, but the games against Green Bay, the eight-win Jaguars, and the Chargers — who beat them by a field goal in week 3 — are tough matchups. The last remaining bit of their schedule will feel like playoff games before the tournament even starts, which will prime Denver for their home playoff game against whoever comes out on top for the final wild-card spot.

#5 – Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

(Week 12: #6)

One win is all the Pack was able to come away with division last season. It came against the Lions, their second matchup against their bitter rivals and regional neighbors that season. Green Bay had a winning record last season and was granted a playoff spot, yet the only facet of the season people focused on and were worried about was their record against other NFC North residents, a division that held three playoff teams that year.

Fast forward a year later, and they’re 3-0 in their division games, sweeping Detroit after their Thanksgiving ballad. The giant, pass-rushing, quarterback-crushing elephant in the room who wears #1 is a large reason for this success. In division games last year, Green Bay gave up 26.5 points on average – that number is now 14.3 through half of their NFC North matchups. They, of course, still have to face the leader of said division this week, the Bears, but the dramatic divisional switch from last year is already evident.

Lions QB Jared Goff was the main recipient of the Green Bay aggression, as Micah Parsons reigned in 2.5 sacks in Detroit on Thanksgiving, making him the first NFL player ever to have at least 12 sacks in their first five seasons. His 36 pressures rank second, only behind the signed, sealed, delivered Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett (39). With both matchups with the current NFC North leader still on the docket, these final few weeks will make for a fantastic finale in the North.

#6 – Chicago Bears (9-3)

(Week 12: #9)

Ben Johnson’s time in Chicago has arrived in a full head of steam, as Johnson has the Bears sitting at 1st place in the entire NFC after a monster win over the Eagles on Black Friday. While everyone was browsing Amazon’s Black Friday deals during the broadcast, Bears fans were treated to a dominant performance on Prime Video against one of the league’s best teams. DeAndre Swift and rookie Kyle Monagai broke out for a combined 268 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. This, mixed with some spectacular play-action passing from Caleb Williams, and the defense shutting down the Eagles’ offense, holding them to only 14 first downs and forcing two turnovers, was the key to a perfect game to jolt them at the top of the north, for now.

Despite his rookie season struggles and his inconsistent play at times, Caleb Williams has started to master what it’s like to be a generator of a Ben Johnson offense. Williams has rarely turned the ball over this season and played his best when it matters most, with only five interceptions so far and an NFL-best five 4th quarter comebacks this season. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but Williams has been a primary catalyst for the Bears’ success.

The defense has been an enormous motor for Chicago this season, leading the NFL in forced turnovers by a wide margin. Despite the injuries, they have kept the Bears in almost every game this season. The Bears have a top 10 offense in what seemed to be impossible for fans in Chicago for years, and a feisty defense to come along with it. The culture is being shaped in the windy city, but they are just getting started.

#7 – Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)

(Week 12: #1)

It has been a disappointing couple of weeks for the fans in Philly, with back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Bears. Fingers are now being pointed at everyone, all over the place, for who is to blame. Multiple people have blamed Jalen Hurts for his mediocre play as of late, and the offensive coordinator, Kevin Patulo, has also been questioned for the playcalling. Still, in reality, it’s been all fronts of the team that have struggled. The defensive front was dominant against the Bears, allowing 281 rushing yards and 28 first downs. The offense also struggled, turning the ball over twice and failing to convert on 3rd down, going just 4/12.

I find it so weird because when the team was winning, there were still questions about whether the offense was actually good. AJ Brown was being shut down, and the rushing attack just wasn’t as dominant as it was last season. Now, AJ Brown has been statistically the best player on offense, as in the previous two games, he had 242 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Despite this, they have lost both games and have been inconsistent offensively overall, blowing a 21-point lead to the Cowboys and only finding two trips to the red zone against the Bears.

The Eagles have a lot of questions around the team and the coaching staff. With the NFC wide open right now, they are gonna want to figure it out with only five regular-season games left to play before the sparks start flying in January.

#8 – Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

(Week 12: BYE WEEK)

The story for the Chiefs has been the complete opposite of last season. In one-score games this year, the Chiefs are 1-6, the one win coming against Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago. Last year, the Super Bowl runner-ups were 12-0. That stat jumps off the page, and it shows how close the Chiefs are to being a top team in the AFC once again. But now, with just a 6-6 record, Kansas City is currently sitting outside the playoff picture, trying to find a way in the bracket come season-end.

One of the only reasons why the Chiefs still have a shot at making the playoffs has been Patrick Mahomes. Sure, his general stats haven’t been great this season, but his skill and IQ at the quarterback position are why the Chiefs still are considered a good team in the AFC. On average, per drive, the Chiefs offense leads the league with 40.77 yards. They also average 2.77 points per drive, which is second in the league. The reason is simply Mahomes; they have the 2nd-highest pass rate in the league (62.8%), so it’s not because of 30-year-old Kareem Hunt. If you watch the tape, it’s Mahomes evading pressure, creating plays out of structure, and making the winning play a good amount of the time.

The Chiefs almost have to win out now, as the AFC West crown is almost out of the picture, so they have to be one of the three non-division winners to make it into the bracket. When you’ve got arguably the best quarterback in the league, you certainly like your chances, but time is running out for a spark in Kansas City.

#9 – San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

(Week 12: Unranked)

Somehow, with all the injuries and adversity the 49ers have faced this season, they sit at the same number of wins as the team in 1st place in the NFC. Even with the loss of key defensive anchors Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, the defense has still somehow found a way to come up with stops when it matters most. The homecoming for Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator in the offseason has been one of the most underrated hires in the coaching cycle last spring. The Defense is top 10 in points allowed per game (20.7) and mainly just plays their best ball when the offense has struggled, which has been rare.

Kyle Shanahan certainly should be considered for Coach Of the Year. With all of the injuries to the team, he still has the offense humming, averaging almost 24 points per game, top 5 in passing yards per game (242.6) despite playing two different quarterbacks so far, and top 10 in turnovers (1.4). The injuries to George Kittle (5 games), Brock Purdy (9 games), Ricky Pearsall (6 games), and Brandon Aiyuk (All season), have almost not mattered when it comes to the production of Shanahan’s system, mainly due to the playcalling and star running back Christian McCaffrey.

It’s almost like you can’t even call Christian McCaffrey human with the amount of production he has gotten this season, in the enormous amount of touches he is getting. CMC has undoubtedly taken a beating this year, leading the NFL in touches by a wide margin (322 touches). With the workload, he is third in total touchdowns (13) and third in total scrimmage yards per game (127.3). IF you want to know how much he matters to the San Francisco offense, just watch the opening drive of the Monday night game against the Panthers. He got the first four touches of the game, on the ground and through the air. The 49ers have a real shot at coming into the playoffs as a division winner, and with the NFC wide open, who knows who they can upset to get to their home field in February.

#10 – Buffalo Bills (8-4)

(Week 12: #7)

Over the last four weeks, the Bills haven’t looked like themselves despite getting some solid wins in that stretch. They lost a crucial game against a stout Houston defense and blew up in a brutal loss to the Dolphins. This has left people questioning whether this can be the Bills’ year, with the AFC looking weaker and weaker as the season goes on.

The offense has looked great for the most part, leading the league in rushing (155.7 ypg) and being top 5 in points per game (28.1), but when the offense doesn’t bring its A game, the defense has crumbled. They get dominated up front, as they are 30th in rush yards allowed per game (141.3). When you aren’t winning the game in the trenches, it’s almost impossible to come out victorious, even when you have Josh Allen leading the charge.

The Bills currently sit right on the edge of the playoff bracket at 7th, but with a couple of tough matchups coming up, it’s going to be a journey to get into the playoffs. They have a meeting with a hungry Bengals team with Joe Burrow returning, the 11-2 Patriots, the 8-4 Eagles, and a top 5 defense against the Browns, so the road will be bumpy for Buffalo to continue their season in January.